Ohio and the 2010 Election

Real Clear Politics Generic Ballot U.S. House of Reps: Democrats 178 Toss Ups 32 GOP 225

The past two days I attended a healthcare conference in Columbus, Ohio. There were approximately 200 persons in attendance. Yesterday 2 lobbyists, one Democrat and one Republican, and the Ohio association executive director and a national association policy director spoke about the upcoming general election.

I was very interested in what they had to say. The comments were geared mostly on Ohio.

NATIONAL POLITICS

Two of the speakers quoted the RealClearPolitics.com Generic Ballot, which is a composite of several different national polls. As of 10/27/2010 the GOP is projected to pick up 8 seats, leaving the Democrats still in the majority. Senate races in WV, NV, IL and CO were very close or tied.

In the House the Republicans are projected to gain the majority taking anywhere between 39 – 77 seats. Out of the 435 House seats up for grabs, only about 100 are competitive. A number of Democrats are retiring to spend time with families, which is code for ‘I’m quitting before my constituents’ fire me.’ Several in Congress are feeling the heat (of the boiling hot TEA maybe?)

In addition the Republicans are expected to pick up 7 governorships.

OBAMACARE

None of the 4 experts thought that Health Care “Reform” would be repealed outright. Any attempt to repeal would be vetoed by the President. Deadlock and incremental changes to the bill were the expected outcome in the post election battles over the new health care ‘reform’ law.

OHIO POLITICS

One thing that really struck me regarding Ohio was the comment made by one of the speakers stating that the grand prize for winning the gubernatorial election was the challenge to deal with the gruesome budget deficit of $8 billion. The current governor, Ted Strickland, is closing the gap and the race is tight. It could go either way. At the present time John Kasich, the GOP candidate is slightly ahead.

Rob Portman (R) has a very impressive lead over Lee Fisher (D) in the race for vacillating George Voinovich’s vacated seat. Portman leads by some 18 percentage points.

One U.S. House of Representatives race that is very close is the Democrat incumbent Zach Space (18^th District) versus Republican Bob Gibbs. That race is very close.

Currently the Ohio State House is controlled by the Democrats and the Ohio Senate is controlled by the Republicans. The Democrats are projected to keep control of the House, but by a slimmer margin. The Republicans are expected to keep control of the Senate.

OHIO APPORTIONMENT BOARD

How the various voting districts will be apportioned is another key item to look at in this election. Based on the 2010 census, Ohio is expected to lose one of its seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. How the voting districts are reapportioned could impact elections for the next ten years.

The board consists of one Democratic Representative and one Republican representative. The other three positions include: the Ohio Secretary of State, the Attorney General, and the Governor. Right now The Republican Jon Husted is ahead of his Democratic opponent, while the Ohio State Auditor race sees Democrat David Pepper winning against the Republican. If that holds true, it will mean that the gubernatorial race will determine which party will be controlling the apportionment process.